Give Rafael Stone credit. He inherited an over the cap team with a cheapskate owner, a fat, pissed off superstar and no draft capital and he's managed the team into its current position, which is quite promising.
The last time the Rockets contended, Tillman Fertitta let Trevor Ariza walk for $15m/yr. That looks even worse in hindsight. The Rockets were inches from the Finals. Ariza was arguably their fifth or sixth best offensive player and probably their best defender. Losing him led to a cascade of bad decisions - Carmelo Anthony, pretending Erik Gordon was a forward, trading Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook (using all their draft capital and then Chris Paul went to the Finals) and then trading away Clint Capela for a role player because Westbrook can't shoot.
This theme will recur. For now, let's look at Rockets roster as currently constructed.
VETERANS
Guards:
Fred Vanfleet
Aaron Holiday
Forwards:
Jae'sean
Jeff Green
Dillon Brooks
Centers:
Steven Adams
Jock Landale
That's a pretty good group. But the Rockets are probably not thinking any of these guys are part of the long term future. (Maybe there is a future where Vanfleet takes a lesser deal and stays.). The veterans are here to make the team competitive now, to teach the young guys and to be salaries for trade.
The group represents $107M/year in salaries on "team friendly" deals. Those salaries could be traded. They will almost all just go away over the next two summers if the Rockets want room to sign one or more free agents.
So, the Rockets have put themselves in good position to either trade for a couple of max salaries or sign a couple of max salaries or a max and some other quality vets. And they are doing this while being playoff quality now.
If you add to the mix the Rocket re-stocked draft capital, swinging for stars or quality veterans seems very doable.
There has been a lot of speculation that the Rockets are specifically watching the Phoenix Suns. If the season starts badly, the Suns could get a lot for Durant. And they could suffer Bradley Beal until his deal expires. But then they either need to build around Devin Booker or bring in a haul to move him. The problem with building around Booker is that the Suns can't tank because the Houston Rockets own all their draft picks. So, the Rockets are the Suns only path to getting their picks back and making them valuable by intentionally tanking. Intriguing. And if the Suns don't want to do the deal and stay mediocre and expensive at the same time, the Rockets can either use the picks or trade them to someone else. That 2027 pick is looking pretty damn good.
YOUNG GUYS
Guards:
Jalen Green
Amen Thompson
Reed Sheppard
AJ Griffin
Forwards:
Jabari Smith
Tari Eason
Cam Whitmore
Center:
Alperen Sengun
This is a group full of promise and all of these guys are on their rookie deals. The question here is, who gets paid? The Rockets are on the clock to max out Sengun and Green next summer. Barring something catastrophic, signing Sengun to his extension seems like a no brainer. Green will probably have to show that he can consistently perform.
And if it isn't going to be Green, the one or more of Whitmore, Thompson, Smith and (yes, I'm saying it) Eason need to emerge as a great players and one or more of them will need to get paid. Some of these guys and some of the rest of the young group could be traded or could slip comfortably into role players roles with role player salaries.
The NBA favors re-signing a team's own players, so presumably the Rockets have to either trade or clear cap space by next summer, and have acquired one or more giant salaries so they can then go over the cap to resign Sengun and Green. Or again, some combination of Sengun and their next best homegrown talents.
And this is where the Fertitta is a cheapskate screed come back into play. Are the Rockets willing to go over the cap or way over the cap to contend?
Fertitta was sold on the "moneyball" concept. Are he and Rafael Stone talking about how to get the best team near the cap, or how to do anything to win?
The Warriors did it for years to win and the recent champion Celtics will pay hundreds of millions in luxury taxes over the next few years if they keep this team together.
The Rockets could be following the Celtics playbook for team building. It might actually be the only format that works now under the CBA. Which is, find a couple of guys in the draft that are true stars. Fill the team with quality (expensive) veterans *before* their inexpensive deals expire and then pay them the max and go way, way over the cap to create a title window.
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