Watching the Rockets tank

 It hasn't been much fun watching the Rockets tank.  I've spent a ton of money on NBA League Pass - the quality of that is for another post.  Make it hard and expensive for you best fans.  Good job, NBA.  I've been left wondering why I spent the money.

What's the plan here as I watch 80 point defensive halftimes as part of 30 point blow outs?  There's the occasional highlight by the streaky, troubled Keven Porter Jr.  And there've been a few one or two amazing dunk games from number one pick, Jaleen Green.  Usually, while scoring nine points with about a thousands turnovers.

Much ink has been spilled about potential trades for John Wall, who refuses to play a supporting role.  Also Eric Gordon who's been a sixth man, accepts whatever position he's given and now that he's healthy, is playing very well.  Lastly, the talented and arguably underpaid Christian Wood.  He's a "modern center" which in sports yack talk means he's skinny and can shoot.  But there are plenty of guys who are thick and can shoot - Jokic, Embiid and Towns not the least of them - so Wood has to be supported by $15-20M worth of thick, center-forward backup meat.  Even then, the Rockets are usually shredded by bigs or guards just run straight in for layups.

Any of these guys could be traded, but the sports press seems to focus on them being traded today.  Of course, the sports press needs stories, or just plain speculation today, but I think the ideas in the Rockets office are more complex.

The Rockets needs to tank this year to use their draft pick to pick up more talent.  But next year they also need to show they can win with what they have.

When one or all of Wood, Wall and Gordon are gone in 2024, when their contracts are up.  (The recently signed Theis' contract is up then too.  I doubt he's trade bait now, but that'll be real money then.)  The Rockets need to use that money to put together a competitive team.  They might have a max salary, or maybe even two.  No great players are going to want to sign with a team that just stank up 2023 after previously stinking up 2021 and 2022.

So, the Rockets can just sit on the players they have and then have lots of room in two years.  But again, I think they have to show competitiveness going into that free agent season.  They don't own their draft pick  in two years, so they'll be no reason to tank.  Their draft assets at that point will be coming from the Nets team that has either cleaned house or that features mid-late thirties stars in Durant, Harden and Irving.

Back to tradings now, if they Rockets were to trade now would be complicated.  This is what is not discussed enough.  If they trade for non-star players, those contracts need to be tradeable for assets expiring in the same window or for contracts they will keep that expire in the same window.

The only other option is to trade for players that they will feature in the future.  Just like John Wall, I'm not sure any top talent, or perceived top talent, is going to be happy about being a Rocket today.

We live in an NBA where top talent and their agents want their players only in chosen destinations and Houston is not one of them.  Even during the Harden era of 65 wins, players had to be brought to Houston in exchange for significant assets.  Meanwhile, players angle to be traded to Miami, New York, LA.  And if they don't get traded there, they sign for less money as soon as they are free agents.  Few players are going to play in Houston for $15M when they could play in Miami for the veteran minimum.

In the last decade, second tier NBA teams have won championships by drafting well.  Milwaukee drafted Yannis and turned him into a superstar.  Same thing in San Antonio with Kawhi (who then left for LA by way of a quick ring in Toronto.). The Suns and Rockets have both built competitors on the formula of drafting or trading for similar young, undeveloped talent and then adding veterans - in both cases Chris Paul.  That's also another story.

Jaleen Green isn't looking like the next high draft superstar so far.  Neither is Kevin Porter looking like an undeveloped future star who was traded for.

You've got to go back to the 2004 Pistons to find a team that didn't feature one or more of the league's very best players.  The Mavericks and Bucks just had one.  Maybe so did the Raptors and Spurs with Kawhi.  Otherwise, it is the league's top players, in the biggest markets dominating the finals.

So Hoston's path is a thin one and they are definitely on the skinniest part right now.