Friday, August 3, 2018

The season hasn't started yet.

There are many pieces decrying or celebrating (1 and 2 examples) the Rockets "losing" free agency this July and falling behind other teams.  But the Rockets don't even have a complete roster, so what is being judged exactly?

The best way to look at the Rockets offseason moves and the ones pending, is via the "Moneyball" lens.

The best unit:

Clint Capela
PJ Tucker
Eric Gordon
James Harden
Chris Paul

This unit is awesome.  They may not play together a lot, but this is Houston's best unit.

I was sad to see Trevor and Luc go too.  But let's get real.  The pair scored 14 points in the game 6 and 7 loses and 15 points in the game 4 and 5 wins.  Bottom line the Rockets can compete with the Warriors without them and they need more contributions to beat the Warriors.

Paying these guys ~ $40M with luxury taxes makes no sense.

It would've been nice to keep Luc.  But maybe he wasn't all the way healthy.  We'll see next season.

The rotation players:

Nene
Gerald Green
James Ennis

That's a pretty solid eight man rotation.  Tell me they can't win 55-60 games?

AND the Rockets are still working to unload Ryan Anderson and bring in a solid rotation player like Nicolas Batum.  That's probably the last move we'll see unit the trade deadline.

The veterans acquired on the cheap:

Carmelo Anthony
Michael Carter Williams

Remember Hatteburg at first?  Melo is a former all star and Williams a former rookie of the year.

Could they contribute?  Will they revive their careers on an amazing team?  Will they contribute nothing?  If they contribute nothing the Rockets can bundle them in a trade later or just throw them away for very little cost.  These are good risks.

And what if they do fit?  Especially Carmelo.  That would be pretty great.

The young talent acquired on the cheap:

Isaiah Hartenstein, Zhou Qi and maybe Vincent Edwards or De'Anthony Melton

Again, if these guys develop and contribute, great.  If not they are grist for the sausage in a trade or back to the G League.

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